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One of the three months that sets your 2027 raise is now on the board

The cost-of-living adjustment isn’t a decision anyone makes in October. It’s an arithmetic problem that finishes itself over July, August, and September — and the first of those three months is now published. Here is where the math stands.

By Kwame Kuadey · August 16, 2026 · 4 min read

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3.1%

Where the 2027 COLA would land if August and September prices hold exactly where July left them.

Benefits Insider calculation from BLS CPI-W data published August 12, 2026. Not a forecast — two of the three months are still unmeasured.

The numbers, drawn

Two charts we keep updated

We build these from the agencies’ own data and publish the arithmetic alongside them. The first one changes twice more this autumn; the second changes every November.

2027 COLA tracker: one of three months measured The 2027 cost-of-living adjustment is calculated from the average CPI-W for July, August and September 2026 compared with the same three months of 2025. The 2025 baseline average was 317.265. July 2026 came in at 327.104. August and September are not yet measured. If prices hold, the 2027 adjustment would be about 3.1 percent, compared with the 2.8 percent adjustment received in 2026, 0.3 percentage points higher. 2027 COLA TRACKER One of the three months is on the board CPI-W index level. The 2027 COLA is the Jul–Sep 2026 average measured against Jul–Sep 2025. Baseline – Q3 2025 average 317.265 327.104 July measured ? August not yet measured ? September not yet measured RAISE YOU HAVE NOW 2.8% in 2026 tracking higher TRACKING FOR 2027 3.1% +0.3 pts The 2027 figure assumes August and September prices hold exactly where July left them. Two of the three months are still unmeasured, so treat it as a range, not a forecast. Benefits Insider calculation from BLS CPI-W data — Sources: bls.gov, ssa.gov/cola BENEFITSINSIDER.CO
What 327.104 actually means. The CPI-W is an index, not a price. BLS set the average cost of a fixed basket of goods and services across 1982–84 equal to 100, so 327.104 means that basket now costs about $327 for every $100 it cost then. The level itself never enters the COLA formula — only the ratio between this year’s July–September average and last year’s. That is why a rise of 9.8 points on a 317-point base works out to about 3.1 percent, not 9.8 percent.
Social Security COLA versus Medicare Part B premium increase, 2023 to 2026 For the years 2024, 2025 and 2026 the standard Medicare Part B premium rose by a larger percentage than the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment. In 2023 the premium fell 3.1 percent while the COLA was 8.7 percent. In 2026 the COLA is 2.8 percent while the premium rose 9.7 percent to $202.90. WHAT’S LEFT OF THE RAISE Your Medicare premium has outrun your raise three years running Annual percentage change: Social Security COLA vs. the standard Medicare Part B premium. Social Security COLA Medicare Part B premium 8.7% -3.1% 2023 premium $164.90 3.2% +5.9% 2024 premium $174.70 2.5% +5.9% 2025 premium $185.00 2.8% +9.7% 2026 premium $202.90 0% Labelled by the year the raise arrives. In 2026 a 2.8% COLA on a $2,000 benefit adds $56 a month; the $17.90 premium increase takes about a third of it back. Most people still net a raise — the gap is narrowing. Benefits Insider calculation from SSA COLA series and CMS Part B fact sheets. BENEFITSINSIDER.CO

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