Social Security COLA based on third-quarter CPI-W average (July, August, September) compared to same period prior year: Most recent reading 4.4% year-over-year driven by Middle East conflict pushing up inflation — SSA will announce official 2027 COLA in October after collecting all third-quarter data — if inflation remains elevated through summer, seniors could receive considerably larger raise than 2.8% COLA received in January 2026.

Independent analyst Mary Johnson projects 4.7% COLA for 2027 assuming inflation stays near current levels — higher if inflation accelerates: Projection hinges on inflation holding or rising through third quarter — significant change from this year's meager 2.8% raise — projections could shift dramatically if inflation cools in August and September.

Too early to bank on specific COLA number — only rely on SSA's official announcement in October after all Q3 data collected: Lower inflation during summer months would reduce COLA estimate, but also means lower prices for consumers — trade-off between larger raise and lower inflation — analysts will update projections once July CPI-W released, but final determination waits for complete third-quarter data and official SSA announcement.

P.S. — A 4.7% COLA sounds like good news, but if you're not already getting the full benefit you're owed, that percentage increase is working off a lower base than it should be. The Maximize Your Social Security Benefits Bundle for 2026 walks you through that → Get the guide here.

Temporary pilot program provides first insurance coverage for GLP-1s used for weight loss in Medicare — eligibility based on BMI and health conditions: Eligible: BMI 35+ or BMI 27+ with heart attack/stroke history, prediabetes, or other listed conditions — excludes those with diabetes, sleep apnea, fatty liver disease (may have separate Part D coverage) — $50/month flat rate regardless of dosage, doesn't count toward deductibles or out-of-pocket maximums — CMS subsidizing directly rather than Part D insurers.

At least 10 million Medicare beneficiaries overweight/obese but narrower slice qualifies — uncertainty on participation numbers: Dr. Mehmet Oz: "sheer cost of medications huge barrier to access...that ends today" — program aims to collect data for potential longer-term coverage — only covered medications: Eli Lilly's Foundayo and Zepbound, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy — must contact healthcare provider to submit prescription and prior authorization form.

Program sunsets December 31, 2027 — permanent congressional authorization required for longer-term coverage: Congress hasn't authorized Medicare permanent weight loss drug coverage — CMS considering different voluntary BALANCE pilot if Bridge extends — Oz told AP federal law allowing coverage "not essential right now" — CMS will track participation and outcomes to determine next steps, ongoing drug cost negotiations continue.

Quality bonus program spending grew faster than MA enrollment since 2015 — $13.4B in 2026 vs. $3B in 2015, now 2.3% of total MA payments: Program increases payments to MA plans with 4+ star ratings on five-star system — 68% of MA enrollees (24M people) in bonus plans in 2026, down from 75% in 2025 — star ratings based on ~40 measures including cancer screenings, flu vaccinations, chronic condition care, plan ratings — CMS estimated eliminating program would save ~$100B over 10 years (savings likely higher now with 35M MA enrollees vs. CBO projection).

Employer/union-sponsored plans receive disproportionately higher bonus payments than individual/special needs plans: Employer/union plans get $466/person average increase vs. $381 individual, $318 special needs — 80%+ of employer/union enrollees consistently qualify for bonuses vs. sporadic qualification for other plan types — raises questions about generosity of benefits and whether system adequately accounts for special needs populations serving higher-need beneficiaries.

Bonus payments vary dramatically across insurers based on star ratings: UnitedHealth gets $3.9B (29% of bonuses) with 26% enrollment; Humana gets only $1.5B (11%) after major star rating drop; Kaiser gets $577/person (highest) with 100% of enrollees in bonus plans; Centene lowest at $23/person with only 6% in bonus plans — CMS making 2029 changes removing administrative measures to simplify system, but projected to increase MA spending $18.6B over 10 years.